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It’s not a hurricane yet… but Tampa area meteorologists are pretty confident it will soon become Tropical Storm Hermine and then eventually Hurricane Hermine. All eyes are on the tropics as we prepare for some wild weather in the middle of next week. While the experts are still saying things could change as the storm forms, it’s becoming clear that all of Florida needs to keep an eye on this one. Here are the newest reports from Tampa area weather experts on the track, timing and potential impact for our area next week based on data readings that came in early this morning.

  • This morning's update from Denis Phillips...

    From Denis’ Facebook page

    1. For folks new to this (or if it’s been a while) time to prepare for some serious stress over the next 5 days. While this track looks pretty scary, look at the margin of error. It’s from East of Florida to the panhandle. A lot can and WILL happen in the next week.

    2. Hurricanes 101. When you see that 110 mph winds, that looks rather daunting. Here’s the reality. Those winds are usually only in about a 10-mile area. The winds quickly drop from that “maximum sustained wind” area to lower speeds as you move away from the center. That center, again, can be anywhere from Miami to the Big Bend area.

    3. This storm has to bend, turn, cross land, and make landfall again in the next 5 days. So, expect a lot of changes and tweaks to the forecast. Now is NOT the time to freak out. It IS the time to prepare, ready yourselves and pay close attention to future advisories.

    4, So, since this will be the big question, let’s say this track is EXACTLY right. What would the impacts be for our area? I would think Irma. The storm isn’t overly large at this point, so a track like this, would give the area winds of a strong tropical storm, or minimal hurricane force. If it goes more to the South, which is exactly the way the models have been trending, we would see less. Obviously, North we would see more. But again, the worst winds with a storm of this size is usually about 10 miles. Right now, the storm is FIFTEEN HUNDRED MILES AWAY. Lots can happen that far out.

    5. So, take a deep breath. We are still a couple days from really knowing where this thing is going. This is the price we pay for living in paradise. We get a few of these from time to time. Be kind to each other. It’s gonna be a long week.

    6. Rule #7 Now is NOT the time to freak out. It’s the time to make plans for you and your family to keep them safe. Remember, this far out, a storm RARELY follows the exact path or strength. Trust me on this, there is a long way to go here. Our team will be on it 24/7. We’re here for you.

  • When the storm makes it's right hand turn is key....

  • From the National Weather Center...

    National Weather Service

  • When the crazy weather could begin...

  • It's the Euro vs GFS models....

  • How strong could this one be?

  • We'll take whatever good news we can get!

  • From NOAA...

    NOAA

  • It's still wait and see...

  • The next 48 hours are key...

  • Rule #7!